The Calibration Gym
The core loop. Log honest probabilities, resolve them, and build a real, running record of how well-calibrated your confidence actually is — not a felt sense of it, a measured one.
How it works
Three steps, repeated weekly
1
Log a forecast
Before a game, an event, anything with a real outcome: slide to your honest probability and lock it in. It can never be edited — only resolved or deleted.
2
Resolve it
Once you know the answer, one tap: happened, or didn't. Your Brier score — the same scoring rule weather services and election modelers are graded on — updates instantly.
3
See your real curve
Your reliability curve shows whether your "70% confident" picks actually hit 70% of the time — or closer to a coin flip.
The tools
Both free, both live nowThe Season Simulator
A real Monte Carlo simulation of the classic gambler's-ruin problem. Set an edge and a bet size and watch a thousand simulated seasons fan out — including the ones that go to zero. Once you've logged enough forecasts in the Gym, it can estimate your own demonstrated edge and run it straight through here.
Pricing
The core loop is free — permanentlyFree
$0
- Unlimited forecast logging & resolving
- Full reliability curve & Brier scoring
- Season Simulator, including your demonstrated-edge handoff
- Data stored locally — nothing sent to a server
Pro
Coming soon
- Multi-season history & segmented analytics
- Cross-device sync
- Export your full forecast record
Get a weekly nudge
A short weekly email reminding you to resolve last week's picks — the single biggest reason a calibration habit falls apart is forgetting to close the loop.